Who Can Beat Andrea Horwath?- The Candidates, The Calculus, The Stakes

The image to the right includes mayoral candidate Keanin Loomis walking in front of Hamilton City Hall. That image may be more symbolic than is apparent.

Should Horwath enter the race for Mayor , and should she prove to be the frontrunner, it won't be enough to ensure a win.

At this stage, the strongest potential threat is Keanin Loomis. Not because he is the loudest candidate. Not because he is the most ideological. And not because he necessarily has the deepest political machinery. Rather, Loomis may pose the greatest challenge precisely because he occupies the space that often proves most dangerous to incumbents: the “pragmatic alternative"

Hamilton is a city wrestling with fatigue. Fatigue over encampments. Fatigue over public safety debates. Fatigue over stalled development fights, tax pressures, downtown uncertainty, and increasingly polarized political discourse. Whether fairly or unfairly, incumbents absorb that frustration.

Horwath’s challenge is that she governs during a period where many Hamiltonians feel the city is struggling to regain momentum. Her supporters see compassion, stability, and principled leadership. Critics see drift, caution, and a council often unable to move decisively.

That environment creates an opening for a candidate who can credibly argue: “We can do better without becoming divisive.”

That is where Loomis becomes politically interesting. His background in economic development and the business community allows him to position himself as managerial rather than ideological. He is unlikely to outflank Horwath on progressive politics, nor would he likely try. Instead, his path would involve attracting centrist voters, frustrated moderates, fiscally anxious homeowners, and portions of the business community who believe Hamilton requires a stronger focus on execution, investment confidence, and operational competence.

Importantly, Loomis also lacks some of the political baggage long-time elected officials often carry. In municipal politics, outsider status can become a powerful asset — particularly when voters are seeking change but are wary of anger-driven populism.

That does not mean the road would be easy.

Horwath still retains significant advantages:
• High name recognition
• Deep labour and progressive support
• Established campaign infrastructure
• Strong personal resilience as a veteran political campaigner
• A loyal base that remains substantial within Hamilton

And in municipal elections, fragmented opposition often helps incumbents enormously.

That reality may ultimately become Horwath’s greatest ally.

Candidates such as Scarlett Gillespie and Rob Cooper may attract issues- driven voters, but unless one challenger emerges clearly and early as the consensus alternative, anti-incumbent votes risk splintering across multiple campaigns.Municipal elections are rarely won solely through ideology. They are won through coalition-building.

The candidate who poses the greatest threat to Andrea Horwath will ultimately be the one who can unite voters seeking change without alienating voters seeking stability.

As demonstrated in the last municipal election, Keanin Loomis came within striking distance of becoming Hamilton’s next mayor. In elections decided by narrow margins, attention to detail matters enormously. Small missteps in one area can produce disproportionate and unexpected consequences elsewhere in a campaign.

A recent example illustrates the point.

In The Hamiltonian’s first instalment of the “Before the Ballot: Questions for Hamilton’s Next Mayor” series, both Keanin Loomis and Scarlett Gillespie provided timely, thoughtful, and on-topic responses to our questions, demonstrating an understanding of the value and influence of engaged local media platforms such as The Hamiltonian.

Mayor Andrea Horwath declined participation in the first round of the series, but did so respectfully and professionally through a courteous reply.

By contrast, Rob Cooper disengaged from the conversation altogether, providing neither a response to the questions posed nor an acknowledgement of our outreach.

In modern campaigns, these seemingly minor moments matter. Municipal elections are often shaped not only by major policy positions, but also by consistency, responsiveness, attentiveness, and a candidate’s willingness to engage with the broader civic conversation. Little mistakes can quickly become larger political issues.

Right now, Keanin Loomis appears best positioned to pose a serious threat to Horwath's bid - if she runs. Whether he succeeds is another question entirely.

The Hamiltonian does not endorse any particular candidate and remains committed to fair, balanced, and neutral coverage throughout the municipal election campaign. We extend our best wishes to all individuals who have chosen to put their names forward in service to the people of Hamilton.

The Hamiltonian

Promises, Pledges, and Practicality: The Limits of “Guaranteeing” Municipal Politics

In an era where public trust in politics is fragile, it is not surprising that candidates are searching for new ways to demonstrate credibility. As reported in today's Hamilton Spectator, Ward 13, candidate Loren Lieberman proposes to to sign a legal-style guarantee promising to uphold his campaign commitments — or resign if he breaks the. The pledge appears to be rooted in a sincere frustration many voters share: too often, campaign promises feel temporary.

At first glance, the idea carries intuitive appeal. Accountability matters. Voters understandably want elected officials to mean what they say. In a climate where cynicism toward politics has grown, any attempt to rebuild trust is likely to resonate with at least some residents.

But while the gesture may be well intentioned, municipal governance is rarely as simple or predictable as campaign season language can suggest.

The challenge is not necessarily sincerity. The challenge is practicality.

City councils operate in an environment where circumstances can change dramatically over four years. Economic conditions shift. Provincial legislation changes. Emergencies emerge. Budgets tighten. Unexpected infrastructure failures occur. Public opinion evolves. Sometimes councillors are required to balance competing priorities that were not even visible during an election campaign.

The reality is that effective municipal leadership often requires adaptability rather than rigid adherence to pre-written commitments. In that light, at worst Lieberman's promise can be seen as both sincere and naive.

A candidate may campaign strongly against a development proposal, for example, only to later receive legal advice indicating the city faces significant financial exposure if it proceeds differently. A promise made before seeing confidential reports, budget pressures, or staff recommendations may become far more complicated once governing begins.

That is not always betrayal. Sometimes it is governance.

There is also a broader philosophical concern. If politicians bind themselves too tightly to fixed campaign pledges, there is a risk they become less responsive to evolving realities and public input once elected. Democracy is not only about promises made in October; it is also about judgment exercised responsibly over the years that follow.

To his credit, Lieberman appears to be attempting to elevate standards around political accountability rather than diminish them. That objective deserves respect. Voters should absolutely scrutinize whether candidates follow through on their priorities and principles.

But there is an important distinction between accountability and contractual politics.

Campaigns are ultimately about presenting values, priorities, direction, and leadership style — not drafting legally enforceable operating manuals for unpredictable four-year mandates. Municipal government is simply too fluid and too complex to reduce to a binding checklist.

Ironically, a rigid “guarantee” could create the opposite problem from the one it is trying to solve. Rather than encouraging honesty, it may incentivize candidates to make fewer meaningful commitments at all, sticking only to vague or ultra-safe promises that can survive changing conditions.

There are already mechanisms available to voters to hold politicians accountable: public scrutiny, media oversight, council transparency, elections, and ultimately the ballot box itself. A councillor who repeatedly abandons their principles or misleads voters usually faces consequences eventually — politically, reputationally, or both.

The desire for stronger accountability is understandable and perhaps even overdue. But municipal leadership is not a fixed script. It is an exercise in judgment, flexibility, negotiation, and adaptation under changing circumstances.

That may not fit neatly into a signed pledge.

But it is probably closer to the reality of governing a city.

Before the Ballot: The Candidate’s Guide- Building a Platform That Is Credible and Deliverable

Welcome to our second instalment in the series: Before the Ballot: The Candidate’s Guide. In this edition, we bring to you -Building a Platform That Is Credible and Deliverable

One of the earliest and most important decisions in a municipal campaign is determining what you actually stand for. A platform is more than a collection of promises—it is a statement of priorities, judgment, and readiness to govern. In Hamilton’s increasingly policy-aware political environment, voters are looking not just for ideas, but for ideas that make sense.

The strongest municipal platforms are clear, focused, and grounded in reality.

Start with priorities, not volume. A common mistake among first-time candidates is trying to address every issue in the city. The result is often a platform that feels unfocused and difficult to remember. Strong campaigns identify a small number of priorities—typically three to five—that align with the candidate’s message and the concerns they are hearing from voters.

Whether the focus is housing, infrastructure, downtown revitalization, safety, or fiscal accountability, the key is discipline. Voters are more likely to remember a few well-developed ideas than dozens of vague commitments.

Understand municipal authority. Not every issue falls within municipal jurisdiction. Candidates sometimes make promises that belong primarily to the provincial or federal governments, creating unrealistic expectations and weakening credibility.

Before announcing a proposal, ask:
Can the city actually do this?
Does council have the authority?
Would it require provincial approval or funding?
Understanding these boundaries demonstrates seriousness and preparation.

Be realistic about costs. Hamilton voters are increasingly attentive to taxes, budgets, and financial pressures. A platform that proposes major spending without explaining how it would be funded invites skepticism.

This does not mean avoiding ambitious ideas. It means showing awareness of trade-offs, timelines, and implementation realities. Fiscal credibility strengthens policy credibility.

Explain the “how,” not just the “what.” Saying you support affordable housing or safer streets is not enough. Voters want to know how you intend to move those goals forward.

A credible platform outlines:
– the proposed action,
– why it matters,
– how it would work,
– and what outcome it is intended to achieve.

Specificity helps voters distinguish between serious proposals and generic messaging.

Ground the platform in what voters are actually saying. The most effective platforms are not built in isolation. They emerge from conversations at the door, community meetings, and local engagement.

If the same concerns continue surfacing in different neighbourhoods, pay attention. A platform that reflects real conversations feels connected to the city. One built entirely from assumptions often feels disconnected.

Keep the language accessible. Municipal policy can become technical quickly. Avoid unnecessary jargon or overly bureaucratic language. A strong platform translates complex issues into clear, understandable proposals without oversimplifying them.

If voters cannot easily explain your platform back to someone else, it may be too complicated.

Ensure consistency with your campaign message. Your platform should reinforce the broader identity of your campaign. A candidate positioning themselves as fiscally disciplined should not release a platform filled with unfunded commitments. A candidate focused on neighbourhood engagement should demonstrate that philosophy throughout the document. Consistency builds trust.

Prepare for scrutiny. Opponents, media, and voters will test your proposals. They may ask about costs, timelines, feasibility, or unintended consequences. Know your platform well enough to defend it clearly and calmly.

A platform is not simply a campaign document—it becomes part of your public credibility.

Avoid the temptation to overpromise. Municipal government moves through process, negotiation, and council dynamics. Promising immediate transformation can create expectations that are difficult to meet. Voters generally respond better to realism delivered with confidence than to exaggerated certainty.

A final note. The best municipal platforms are not necessarily the longest or the boldest. They are the ones that demonstrate understanding—of the city, of governance, and of what can realistically be achieved.

In Hamilton, where voters are increasingly looking for seriousness and substance, a credible and deliverable platform is not just a campaign asset. It is evidence that a candidate is prepared for the responsibilities of office.

Know someone who is running or considering a run for municipal office? Share this article with them. 

The House of Horwath- The $8,500.00 Cart Before the Horse

Update: Property Standards Appeal Delays Enforcement Action on West Avenue Home

Mayor Andrea Horwath has formally appealed a city property standards order related to a West Avenue North home she owns, adding another development to an ongoing dispute surrounding the property.

According to the city, the appeal was filed with the clerk’s office following a Jan. 9 property standards order requiring building and roof repairs at the home. The original compliance deadline expired May 1.

Under the city’s process, the filing of an appeal delays further enforcement action until the matter is heard before Hamilton’s property standards committee. A hearing date has not yet been scheduled.

The property has been the subject of ongoing public attention since late last year. Horwath’s former partner, Ben Leonetti, currently occupies the home and has claimed an ownership interest in the property as part of an ongoing family court matter. That issue has not yet been resolved by the courts.

News of the appeal follows a recent Superior Court decision denying an application seeking Leonetti’s removal from the property.

In his decision, Justice Michael Valente stated he was “not satisfied” that Leonetti needed to vacate the home for repairs to proceed and said he could not determine whether Horwath had the unilateral authority to demolish the property.

Court documents filed by Horwath argued that repairs required under the order would cost at least $131,000, while demolition was estimated at approximately $25,000. The documents also stated the property had been appraised at $300,000.

The city has previously completed emergency work at the property under an emergency order issued last December. Earlier this year, the municipality was permitted to register a lien exceeding $58,000 against the property to recover those costs.

Prior to the appeal being filed, the city had indicated a bylaw officer would reinspect the property following the May 1 deadline to assess compliance and determine whether further enforcement action was required. Possible enforcement measures could include fines or additional city-ordered work added to the property tax bill.

In a statement to The Spectator, Horwath described the matter as “a long and protracted personal issue” that she continues to work to resolve.

The matter will now proceed through the city’s property standards appeal process while related family court proceedings continue separately.

Media Release: Mark Daly Files to Run for Hamilton City Council in Ward 7

Retired secondary principal and lifelong Hamiltonian enters Ward 7 race.

Hamilton, ON — Mark Daly has officially filed his nomination to run for City Council in Ward 7 in the 2026 municipal election.

A lifelong Hamiltonian and Ward 7 resident since 1995, Daly spent 34 years in education, including 14 years as a secondary school principal at St. Jean de Brébeuf Catholic Secondary and Cathedral High School. In 2021, he was named a Principal of the Year by the Catholic Principals’ Council of Ontario. Under his leadership, both schools improved academic results, modernized facilities, including the addition of new turf fields, and St. Jean de Brébeuf earned the Premier’s Award for Safe Schools. He also successfully advocated for new sidewalks on Acadia Drive and Upper Sherman Avenue — a direct infrastructure win for Ward 7 residents.

“I’ve spent my career managing budgets, leading large teams, and making difficult decisions that affected people’s lives,” said Daly. “I’ve always tried to make those decisions with both discipline and genuine care. Ward 7 deserves that same standard at City Hall.”

Daly’s campaign is focused on three priorities: Fix Our Roads. Control Taxes. Restore Accountability.

On roads, Daly was blunt: “In 2025, CAA ranked Aberdeen Avenue and Barton Street East as the number one and number two worst roads in Ontario. A Hamilton road has held that distinction six of the last eight years. That is unacceptable. Hamiltonians deserve better.”

On taxes, he was equally direct: “Hamilton property taxes have increased more than 18% since 2022. Over that same period, inflation has been under 9%. On my own home, the bill has gone up over 20%. Residents are paying significantly more and not seeing the results they expect. I will not support any tax increase above the rate of inflation. That can be achieved by prioritizing what matters most, improving oversight, and finding real efficiencies — the same approach I applied throughout my career.”

“If nothing changes at City Hall, then nothing changes,” Daly added. “I don’t accept that this is the best we can do in Hamilton. That is why I am stepping forward.”

Daly and his wife — also a retired principal — raised their four children in Ward 7. A Cathedral High School graduate, he earned a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics Education from Boston University on an NCAA Division I basketball scholarship and played professionally with the 1992 Hamilton Skyhawks. He remains active in his parish and local community organizations.

“Ward 7 is home,” said Daly. “I’m looking forward to knocking on doors and earning the trust of my neighbours — one conversation at a time.”

For more information, visit https://markdalyward7.ca/

Before the Ballot- Questions for Hamilton's Next Mayor- Update:

The following is an update, in alphabetical order by last name, as to responses to The Hamiltonian's first instalment of Before the Ballot:

Cooper, Rob- No response as of yet

Gillespie, Scarlett - Click here to see Ms. Gillespie's submission

Horwath, Andrea- Mayor’s office advised she will not be participating at this time. 

Loomis, Keanin - Click here to see Mr. Loomis' submission

While the deadline has come and gone for submissions, The Hamiltonian will remain open to late submissions- provided they are within reason.